Modeling (Run the DDSS)

An integral part of the GLEAMS Dynamic Decision Support System (DDSS) is the development of a flexible and extendable (i.e., modular) modeling infrastructure to help translate knowledge of contaminant location into an understanding of risks, both ecological and human, and a prediction of future conditions.

GLEAMS is actively engaged in development of a series of models to assess contaminant transport within the Kalamazoo River and the associated ecological and human health risk. Ultimately, the goal is to have an end-to-end system in place that links several models together and which draws dynamically from in situ observations and real-time data. This innovative approach of incorporating in situ observations is a technique also known as data assimilation, which helps anchor the models to the real world wherever and whenever possible.

At present, the models implemented within the DDSS consist of mathematical algorithms that produce:

1. Water Quality Index - a single value derived from multiple water quality parameters that represents the quality of water for a given application (i.e., recreation, fishing, drinking, etc.) in a given area
2. Risk Assessment – returns an estimate of the health risk factors associated with fish ingestion from specific areas on the Kalamazoo River, based on a conversion of sediment contaminant concentration to fish concentration via a food web model (in this case, biota-to-sediment accumulation factor (BSAF))
3. Genomic Expression – identifies and compares the gene expression (fish response) due to PCB exposure in different regions of the Kalamazoo River

As the GLEAMS project progresses, additional models will be implemented to supplement and improve those in place now, including:

1.      Incorporation of genomic models of P-450 expression into the risk assessment

2.      Implementation of risk models for small animals and birds based on biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAF)

3.      Inclusion of KALTOX, a fate and transport model that has been developed under the GLEAMS initiative

4.      Upgrading BSAF based models to more sophisticated food web models

5.      Extending the models to include PAHs, trace metals, pesticides and other contaminants.

For additional information on the GLEAMS modeling vision, click here.

Example Output

For example output from the risk assessment model, click here.

For example output from the water quality index model, click here.